A unit is the base building block of stake size — typically 1–2% of bankroll. Everything else is a policy for how many units you risk when you think you have edge.
Hard ceiling
As a practical safety rail for recreational bettors:
- Default stake: 1 unit
- Strong conviction with clear edge: up to 2–3 units
- Almost never: more than 5 units on a single selection
If a bet “needs” 10%+ of bankroll to feel exciting, the problem is dopamine, not the price.
Plan A — Flat staking (recommended start)
Bet the same unit size on every qualified selection, regardless of how hot the tip feels.
Pros: simple, low variance, easy to audit.
Cons: does not automatically compound winners or shrink after losses.
For beginners tracking process quality, flat staking is the cleanest path. It makes ROI readable because stake is constant.
Plan B — Percentage of bankroll
Stake a fixed percentage of current bankroll (e.g. 1–2%).
- After losses, stakes shrink (protective).
- After wins, stakes grow (compounding).
This is excellent for long-run survival. It requires updating the unit when bankroll moves meaningfully (e.g. weekly), not after every match in a panic.
Plan C — Kelly Criterion (advanced, use fractions)
Kelly sizes stake proportional to edge and odds. In plain English:
- Estimate true probability (p) of the outcome.
- Convert decimal odds (o) into net odds (b = o - 1).
- Full Kelly fraction ≈ ( (p \times o - 1) / (o - 1) ) when EV is positive.
Worked sketch
Suppose you estimate a home win at 68% and the book is 1.75:
- Expected value factor: (0.68 \times 1.75 - 1 = 0.19) (positive EV)
- Full Kelly often suggests a large fraction of bankroll when you are confident
That is the trap. Probability estimates are noisy. Full Kelly with overconfident (p) is a fast way to ruin.
Practical rule: use quarter-Kelly or half-Kelly, and still cap at your unit ceiling.
On SupaBola, the edge / model probability on pages like /value-bets is an input to judgment — not a command to fire full Kelly.
Choosing a plan
| Situation | Prefer | |-----------|--------| | Learning process, early sample | Flat 1u | | Established process, want auto-protect | 1–2% of bankroll | | Quant-heavy, trusted calibration | Fractional Kelly + hard cap |
Football reality check
Across a 38-game Premier League season of weekend cards, flat 1u produces a readable equity curve. Jumping to 5–10u “because it is the derby” turns the season into a coin flip about one emotional fixture.
Key takeaways
- A unit is usually 1–2% of bankroll; respect a single-bet ceiling.
- Flat staking is the best default for beginners.
- Percentage staking protects during drawdowns.
- Kelly maximises growth only with honest probabilities — use fractions.
- Never let “max confidence” override unit rules.
For educational and informational purposes only. Gambling involves risk. Please bet responsibly.